Elections BC has announced the initial 2024 BC Election results and I am absolutely thrilled to see how things played out on October 19. While recounts are scheduled for two ridings where the NDP presently lead by < 100 votes (Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey Centre), and about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots have yet to be counted, the NDP hold a one seat lead with the BC Greens once more holding the balance of power.

Embedded within the election results are some very clear messages that party leaders should heed.

First, neither the BC Conservatives nor the BC NDP received a majority suggesting:

  1. British Columbians no longer want to be guinea pigs in Eby’s tone deaf policy experiments. They want him to empower his cabinet, work hard to reach consensus with his cabinet colleagues and start listening to what regular folk are saying. Eby’s failure to obtain a majority was not unexpected. As I wrote in the Vancouver Sun on July 9, 2024:

    Since assuming the premier’s chair in November 2022, radical ideological-driven activism, empty promises with destructive consequences, and out-of-touch hubris embody the hallmarks of his tenure 

    But British Columbians have given David Eby a second chance under the watchful eyes of the BC Greens.

  2. British Columbians did not trust the BC Conservatives enough for them to be given the keys to governance. The BC Conservatives had too many inexperienced candidates, too many candidates associated with odd conspiracy theories, and too much uncertainty surrounding them to be granted a majority. Yet British Columbians have put the BC NDP on notice that they need to do better. A strong BC Conservative caucus has emerged and that caucus will only get stronger as they gain more experience in the BC Legislature. The BC Conservatives will be eager to demonstrate why they are a government in waiting.

Second, the BC Greens were also sent a very clear message. The ecosocialist, far left direction that the present leader has taken the party did not resonate with British Columbians. The BC Green popular vote was slashed in half from the 17% obtained in 2017, the last time the BC Greens held the balance of power. And the BC Green leader was easily beaten by the BC NDP candidate in the progressive riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill.

Yet two BC Greens got elected. These were in the ridings of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and Saanich North and the Islands. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (and its predecessor West Vancouver-Howe Sound) has been a BC Liberal stronghold since 1991; Saanich North and the Islands was another BC Liberal stronghold since 1991 (until Adam Olsen appeared on the scene in 2013). And I was first elected as a BC Green MLA in 2013 by unseating a BC Liberal cabinet minister who had represented the riding for 17 years.

If the BC Greens want to remain relevant, they have a very clear pathway forward. And that pathway involves repositioning the party as a viable centrist option that is fiscally conservative, socially progressive and environmentally responsible. But that can only happen with a new leader at the helm who can once more inspire the centrist voters back to the party.

2 Comments

  1. Bryan Swansburg-Reply
    October 22, 2024 at 10:30 am

    I’m always amused by these ‘the people decided’ analyses.

    There are individuals who think the NDP suck but the alternatives are worse. There may even be someone who think the NDP are a good idea.
    There are individuals who will vote ‘conservative’ even though the party barely exists and has no platform, just to get out the tax-everything NDP.

    There are individuals who would vote green but realize this is a wasted vote. And individuals like me who will vote green even though hell will freeze over before they get in.

    There was no agreement to punish the greens by removing half their votes. And any individual riding had a thousand reasons to choose that candidate – too many potholes, the mill closed, open that coal mine, the new apartment across the road is too big, the collapse of civilization, gas is too expensive.

    • October 30, 2024 at 5:59 pm

      Hello Bryan, re: “There was no agreement to punish the greens by removing half their votes.” I of course agree. Every election the NDP pull the classic “a vote for the Greens is a vote for the _____” (fill in the blank: BC Liberals or BC Conservatives). Actually a vote for a Green is a vote for a Green but the fear-based vote splitting narrative is a classic NDP strategy. In the lead up to the 2017 election, we were polling at 22% but ended up at 17% once the vote split narrative played out. In 2024 the BC Greens were polling at 10% and ended up with 8%.

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