Elections BC has announced the initial 2024 BC Election results and I am absolutely thrilled to see how things played out on October 19. While recounts are scheduled for two ridings where the NDP presently lead by < 100 votes (Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey Centre), and about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots have yet to be counted, the NDP hold a one seat lead with the BC Greens once more holding the balance of power.

Embedded within the election results are some very clear messages that party leaders should heed.

First, neither the BC Conservatives nor the BC NDP received a majority suggesting:

1. British Columbians no longer want to be guinea pigs in Eby’s tone deaf policy experiments. They want him to empower his cabinet, work hard to reach consensus with his cabinet colleagues and start listening to what regular folk are saying. Eby’s failure to obtain a majority was not unexpected. As I wrote in the Vancouver Sun on July 9, 2024:
   
   Since assuming the premier’s chair in November 2022, radical ideological-driven activism, empty promises with destructive consequences, and out-of-touch hubris embody the hallmarks of his tenure 

   But British Columbians have given David Eby a second chance under the watchful eyes of the BC Greens.

2. British Columbians did not trust the BC Conservatives enough for them to be given the keys to governance. The BC Conservatives had too many inexperienced candidates, too many candidates associated with odd conspiracy theories, and too much uncertainty surrounding them to be granted a majority. Yet British Columbians have put the BC NDP on notice that they need to do better. A strong BC Conservative caucus has emerged and that caucus will only get stronger as they gain more experience in the BC Legislature. The BC Conservatives will be eager to demonstrate why they are a government in waiting.

Second, the BC Greens were also sent a very clear message. The ecosocialist, far left direction that the present leader has taken the party did not resonate with British Columbians. The BC Green popular vote was slashed in half from the 17% obtained in 2017, the last time the BC Greens held the balance of power. And the BC Green leader was easily beaten by the BC NDP candidate in the progressive riding of Victoria-Beacon Hill.

Yet two BC Greens got elected. These were in the ridings of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and Saanich North and the Islands. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (and its predecessor West Vancouver-Howe Sound) has been a BC Liberal stronghold since 1991; Saanich North and the Islands was another BC Liberal stronghold since 1991 (until Adam Olsen appeared on the scene in 2013). And I was first elected as a BC Green MLA in 2013 by unseating a BC Liberal cabinet minister who had represented the riding for 17 years.

If the BC Greens want to remain relevant, they have a very clear pathway forward. And that pathway involves repositioning the party as a viable centrist option that is fiscally conservative, socially progressive and environmentally responsible. But that can only happen with a new leader at the helm who can once more inspire the centrist voters back to the party.

With just over two weeks to go before the BC provincial election, we’ve entered the twilight zone of political campaigning. Political parties and their hyper partisan foot soldiers are hitting the streets, the airwaves and the internet with outrageous rhetoric, promises and accusations.

The BC NDP have decided that incentivizing demand, a policy that will only drive up house prices and increase the debt burden for first time homebuyers, is somehow the way to deal with housing affordability. At the same time, and just two weeks after releasing the 2024/25 first quarter fiscal update projecting a whopping $9 billion deficit this year, they promised to give the average family a $1000 hand out. The BC NDP’s Dave Dollars giveaway mirrors the cynical Ralph Bucks that were doled out by Alberta’s Premier Ralph Klein starting in 2006.

The BC NDP’s Dave Dollars announcement came just two days after the Conservative Party of BC touted their Rustad Rebate that would eventually exempt up to $3000 per month in rent or mortgage payments from provincial taxation. Existing landowners and homeowners are no doubt salivating as it gives renters and potential buyers more money to spend on rent and houses thereby pushing up prices due to an existing supply shortage. Not to be outdone with populist policy announcements, the Conservatives just released their Powering BC energy plan that ironically demonstrates energy illiteracy while proposing to “build trust and energy literacy” in British Columbia.  The document demonstrates a profound lack of understanding of energy production, transmission and storage in British Columbia and reads like it was written by 20-something year old staffers imported from Premier Danielle Smith’s Alberta team.

To top it off, the BC Greens, lost in an ecosocialist hinterland, issued a platform that virtue signals a pathway to economic collapse. Their bizarre approach to deal with British Columbia’s housing shortage is to rage on the “for-profit industry that financializes” it. I’m not sure how musing about Marxist doctrine that “justifies and predicts the emergence of a stateless and classless society without private property” is helpful in increasing housing supply.

No political party has offered a vision that would inspire you to vote for them. Rather, the BC NDP are spending most of their time telling voters why they should be afraid of John Rustad and the BC Conservatives. The BC Conservatives are spending most of their time announcing what NDP policies they would undo. And not a day goes by without a BC Conservative candidate or their Leader, being associated with one batshit crazy conspiracy theory or another. Meanwhile the BC Greens, under their last-one-turn-out-the-lights sanctimonious leadership and dysfunctional organizational capacity, remain lost in the wilderness as they seek too inspire a handful of activists on the far left of the political spectrum.

Sadly, my prediction for this election is that the winner will be the non voter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very low voter turnout and even perhaps record high numbers of spoiled ballots.

With that said, I have always voted for the local candidate who I believe would best represent the riding I live in. In the last four BC Elections I voted for Ida Chong (BC Liberal in 2009), myself (BC Green) in 2013 and again in 2017, Murray Rankin (BC NDP) in 2020 and I will vote for Stephen Andrew (BC Conservatives) in 2024. The choice would be hard for me in a number of  other ridings where I might be tempted to write None of the Above on my ballot or where there are two candidates I might have to decide between. Kootenay Central comes to mind in the latter case as I have enormous respect for both Nicole Charlwood (BC Greens) rand Brittny Anderson (BC NDP).

In case anyone is interested, below is a list of twelve candidates (focusing on Vancouver Island) that I would certainly vote for if I lived in their riding.  In the spirit of non partisanship, I offer three BC Conservative candidates, three former BC United Candidates who are now running as independents and six NDP candidates. I could write long essays as to why I support each of these people, but I will simply link you to their candidate pages so you can read up on them yourselves. There are others who I know or have worked with in other ridings, but I didn’t want to skew the non-partisan nature of my list.

I have an easy choice in Oak Bay Gordon Head where my long time friend Stephen Andrew is on the ballot. Coincidentally, when I announced my decision to run with the BC Green Party in Oak Bay Gordon Head on September 20, 2012, I did so on Stephen Andrew’s CFAX 1070 radio show!

Here’s the list:

Today the Vancouver Sun published an opinion piece I wrote in advance of the next provincial election. I am reproducing the text of this piece here so I am able to share it on my Facebook Page (which doesn’t allow news stories from Canadian Media to be published).

Opinion Editorial

As we approach the fall election, it is clear to me that Premier David Eby presides over a centrally controlled administration doing more harm across the province than good. Simply put, he has lost the plot of what it takes to govern by deciding to pander to his narrow base of support.

I abhor gamesmanship for political advantage and inflexible doctrines. My departure from academia to run for office in 2013 was predicated on a desire to positively impact the daily lives of my fellow British Columbians toward building a better future, and to change the political discourse on climate change.

Climate change is not something to fear or deny, but rather a grand challenge to be embraced as an incredible opportunity for innovation in mining, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing and the new economy.

While I never considered myself a politician (I much prefer the term “change maker”), I quickly understood that achieving progress requires bringing people with you. One cannot claim to be a leader by preaching what is “right” while willfully ignoring the voices you are supposed to represent.This simple concept helped me navigate negotiations for a confidence and supply agreement with NDP Premier John Horgan following the 2017 election. Collectively, we identified problems, developed a framework for potential solutions, and subsequently worked collaboratively through action, not rhetoric.

Did we agree on everything? Absolutely not. Yet I never wavered in my faith in Horgan’s sincerity to work for the benefit of all or his devotion to practising pragmatism over politics.

Unfortunately, I cannot say the same for David Eby.

Since assuming the premier’s chair in November 2022, radical ideological-driven activism, empty promises with destructive consequences, and out-of-touch hubris embody the hallmarks of his tenure.

Under Eby, government fiscal management is out of control, with two consecutive budgets since Horgan stepped down that raised spending by 14 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. Deficits over the coming three years will dwarf those the province experienced during the height of the pandemic, while the province’s debt has tripled since pre-pandemic levels in 2019-2020. In both cases, the increases far outpace the rate of inflation and population growth.

As a result, two major credit-rating agencies have downgraded B.C. since Eby became premier, which will inevitably result in increased borrowing costs and higher taxes.

I’m also troubled by the rise in hate crimes, particularly against the Jewish community, which has been met with nothing but token reactionary statements by the government. This was confirmed by the resignation of former NDP Finance Minister Selina Robinson, who felt that “it wasn’t safe” to use her voice as a Jewish member of the governing caucus, and that Eby’s response to growing antisemitism was “simply performative.”

I recently publicly opined that I was considering supporting John Rustad’s Conservative Party of B.C. in the October election, which brought a flood of inquiries on how that squared with my beliefs as a climate scientist.

I’ve had several discussions with Rustad, and while there are still gaps between our views on how to respond to the challenges and opportunities afforded by climate change, they are not as wide as some might imagine. In fact, there were similar gaps in the views held by Horgan and myself in the early days of our minority government.

Like Horgan, Rustad’s ability to listen and be open to input are the traits of effective leadership. My conversations with Rustad have given me a very different understanding of his policy proposals when compared to the recent attack messaging advanced by Eby’s government.

I remain unsure of how I will vote in the election. Yet I know with certainty that this is the most consequential decision for B.C.’s electorate in a generation, and it warrants careful consideration away from the noise of self-serving political interests.

Today the Vancouver Sun published an opinion piece that I recently wrote.

Undoubtedly, the COVID-19 pandemic has introduced uncertainty into all echelons of daily life. But uncertainty need not inspire fear. Uncertainty is the precursor to innovation and innovation is the precursor to change. We are offered two choices today. To fear uncertainty and to fear change, or to see this generational challenge as a generational opportunity.

Below I reproduce the text of the opinion piece. The original is available on the Vancouver Sun website.

Text of Article

It’s been just over two months since BC declared a state of emergency in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and only a few days since relaxed restrictions were introduced in stage 2 of our provincial response. Yet judging from the myriad communications my office receives, British Columbians are still very nervous about the future.

While various commentators are suggesting we are heading into a “new normal” for business and, more generally, society as a whole, it’s far from clear what that “new normal’ looks like. Therein lies an incredible opportunity for the creation of long-term socially, environmentally and fiscally resilient and sustainable policies for British Columbia. For right now “uncertainty” seems to be the only thing “normal” in our daily lives.

Every challenge, whether it be global climate change, poverty reduction, the opioid crisis, the changing nature of work or even the COVID-19 pandemic, presents us with an opportunity for creativity & innovation; in other words, an opportunity to do things differently moving forward. For often the single biggest impediment to change is fear of the uncertainty that it will bring.  Many entrench and defend themselves in the comfort of the status quo.

Jurisdictions that emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic stronger than before the deadly virus took hold will be those that adapt and respond in a timely fashion. Standing by and waiting for the holy grail of a vaccine or herd immunity, which may or may not ever occur, is simply not an option.

We are incredibly fortunate to live in British Columbia. Our provincial response to the pandemic to-date has been nothing short of exceptional. We’ve had calm, collected, evidence-based leadership by provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix. And most individuals and business have responded quickly to their requests, suggestions and orders.

As a direct consequence, British Columbia is now in a position to capitalize on the opportunities for change that the COVID-19 pandemic has created. But this will require an ongoing commitment to focus on the sage advice offered in a number of reports that were recently presented to the province.

On January 30, B.C.’s Food Security Task Force report was publicly released. “The Future of B.C.’s Food Systems” issued four recommendations designed to situate BC on an innovation pathway to capitalize on our strategic advantages in this sector. The report notes that the Netherlands ranks 131^st in the world in terms of land area but is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural goods. This is only possible because of the country’s focus on high value products, investments in innovation ecosystems, support for supply chain development, and strong land use policies. That’s what we should be doing in BC.

On May 11^th the Emerging Economy Task Force final report was publicly released with 25 recommendations to assist British Columbia capitalize on global trends and technological advancements in the years ahead. That same day the final report from BC’s inaugural Innovation Commissioner, Dr. Alan Winter, was also publicly released. Dr. Winter provided five recommendations to government to encourage and assist the transformation of our economy to one that is resilient, based on our strategic strengths, and ready to lead in the 21^st century.

And we will soon learn more from three distinguished scholars who are putting the finishing touches on their report exploring the role that basic income might play in reducing poverty and preparing for the emerging economy. A sneak peak of what we might expect from them appeared in an article entitled “Considerations for Basic Income as a COVID-19 Response” that was published Thursday by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

A common theme in all these reports emerges. In light of the threat of pandemics, growing income inequality, and climate change, as well as the changing nature of work, modern economies need to quickly prepare. What has worked in the past will not work in the future.

As British Columbia emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic over the next year or so, we must learn from our mistakes and capitalize on opportunities that have arisen. The global shortage of protective medical equipment highlighted the importance of shoring up local supply chains and ensuring we have diversified manufacturing capacity locally. The complete chaos unfolding in the United States and Brazil as COVID-19 runs rampant there also underpins the importance of evidence-based decision-making in policy formulation.

British Columbia must also rethink its approach to the resource sector. Globalization has meant that we’ll never compete with jurisdictions that don’t internalize the social and environmental costs of resource extraction unless we are smarter, more efficient, cleaner and innovative in our extraction methodologies, and focus on value-added products for export. Sadly, our approach in recent years has been to literally give away our raw natural resources with little focus on the long-term effect this will have on the well-being and sustainability of rural BC.

British Columbia has three strategic advantages that set it aside from other jurisdictions around the world. 1) British Columbia is one of the most beautiful places anywhere to live. As such, we can attract to BC and retain the best and brightest worldwide because of the quality of life and the stable democracy that we can offer. 2) We have one of the best K-12 and postsecondary education systems in the world. They produce a highly skilled and educated workforce ready to meet the challenges of the 21^st century. 3) We have boundless renewable resources in the form of clean energy, wood, water and agricultural land. And we have an economic plan embodied in CleanBC that recognizes these strategic strengths at its very core.

We should be using our strategic advantage as a destination of choice to attract industry to BC in highly mobile sectors that have difficulty retaining employees in a competitive marketplace. We should be using our boundless renewable energy resources to attract industry, including the manufacturing sector, that wants to brand itself as sustainable over its entire business cycle, just like Washington and Oregon have done in attracting a large BMW manufacturing facility and Google data centre to their jurisdictions.

We should be setting up seed funding mechanisms to allow the BC-based creative economy sector to leverage venture capital from other jurisdictions to our province. Too often the only leveraging that is done is the shutting down of BC-based offices and opening of offices in the Silicon Valley.

Undoubtedly, the COVID-19 pandemic has introduced uncertainty into all echelons of daily life. But uncertainty need not inspire fear. Uncertainty is the pretext to innovation and innovation is the pretext to change. We are offered two choices today. To fear uncertainty and to fear change, or to see this generational challenge as a generational opportunity. I prefer the latter and I’m excited to continue working with the BC NDP government in our attempts to capitalize on this opportunity.

Over the last two weeks governments across Canada have introduced some of the most far reaching and ambitious programs in recent memory to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The policymakers and civil servants behind these supports deserve to be commended for the speed at which they have acted and for their ingenuity. Despite these unprecedented government interventions into the economy it is becoming increasingly clear that the measures introduced so far are not enough. Many businesses are slipping through the cracks of the available supports and are struggling to make ends meet.

Statistics released by the BC Chamber of Commerce (BCC) and the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) on the scale of the economic devastation brought about by COVID-19 are staggering. Two-thirds of the 1,900 businesses polled by the BCC have experienced at least a 50% decrease in revenue and over half are worried that they will face bankruptcy or be unable to resume operations when the crisis subsides. Almost 40 percent of independent businesses surveyed by the CFIB have said that the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy will not help them and 56% said that they have no fiscal capacity to take on new debt. These statistics released by business advocacy groups are consistent with the daily emails my office has received informing us that the existing measures are not enough. Messages received by my constituency office, ongoing conversations with small businesses and reports from the media highlight gaps in the existing programs. Some of the gaps are outlined below.

Eligibility for the Canada Emergency Business Account

The Canada Emergency Business Account is open to businesses with a total payroll between $50,000.00 and $1,000,000.00 in 2019. However, there are many small businesses with 10 to 20 employees whose payroll exceeds the program’s upper limit. For instance, small health, technology and manufacturing companies whose growth the province has been trying to cultivate will be particularly hard hit by the program’s restrictions.

BC Hydro Small Business Credit

The BC Hydro Small Business Tax Credit defines “small business” as those that qualify for their Small General Service Rate. The effect of this restriction is that numerous businesses with narrow profit margins that use high amounts of electricity (i.e. local restaurants using the medium general service rate) will not be eligible for the benefit. Although BC Hydro does allow payments to be deferred, many of these bills will be due at precisely the same time when businesses will be trying to recover from the crisis.

Restrictions in the Wage Subsidy

The original structure of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy worked against small businesses who had experienced substantial declines in revenue but were still trying to stay open to provide services to people. Eligibility requirements originally restricted applications to businesses that have experienced at least a 30% drop in revenue when comparing one month this year to same month last year. This restriction would have meant that businesses whose revenue had decreased by 20% or even 29% would not qualify for the subsidy. The direct effects of restricting the availability of the program would have been further layoffs of workers which defeats the announced goal of the support. As it stands, within the foodservice industry 7 out of 10 businesses will continue to reduce staff hours or lay off more employees if their current situation does not improve. Recently announced changes to the bill will allow businesses to qualify for the subsidy if they can demonstrate a 15 percent drop in revenue in March. Companies will also be permitted use January or February as their base line in certain situations. These changes to the legislation show that the government is listening to business owners. However, continued monitoring is needed to determine if they adequately address the bill’s original flaws.

Profit margins and the use of a ‘one-size fits all’ approach

For many small businesses with narrow profit margins, the difference between remaining viable and facing insolvency is extremely thin, making a substantial decline in revenue potentially devastating. Given the financial position of many small businesses, the measures introduced so far may not be enough to keep them afloat. While the wage subsidy does offer some support, many businesses still have substantial fixed costs (i.e. rent, utilities). These businesses are seeing reduced revenue due to disruption in their supply chains and decreased demand in the economy. Furthermore, numerous already overextended business owners feel that they don’t have the fiscal capacity to take out additional loans. The structure of the existing programs also does little to support small businesses reliant on cyclical or seasonally dependent revenue who have recently seen their sales dry up. For businesses in this position tax deferrals or loans will become difficult to finance with their primary revenue source having evaporated.

Looking Ahead

Going forward, both the provincial and federal government will need to work together to quickly address the gaps in support measures introduced so far. Solutions which have been floated by business groups include: direct payments to business (especially those hardest-hit by the crisis), further reductions in taxes, and supports for businesses unable to pay rent. Other countries may provide models for how to respond as well. Both Norway and Demark have introduced schemes to help companies experiencing revenue losses to pay their fixed costs. Switzerland has launched a program where the small business can apply for interest free loans of up to 10 percent of their annual revenue (SFr500,000 maximum) which are fully backed by the government.

Right now, the current collapse in economic activity is happening at an unprecedented pace. Nearly one quarter of the businesses surveyed by the CFIB stated that they will be unable to make it through the next month without additional support. Within the foodservice industry almost 10 percent of restaurants have already closed and an additional 18 per cent could permanently close by the end of April if current conditions persist. Time is of the essence in getting businesses the support they need.

By expanding the available support programs for small businesses, governments will be reducing the amount of economic hardship experienced by countless numbers of people. Supporting hard-hit businesses will be an incredibly expensive in the short-term. There are major long-term benefits to ensuring that businesses are able to remain operational. Keeping more small businesses solvent throughout the pandemic will help to prevent businesses and workers from needing to re-establish their niches in the economy after the crisis abates. By acting now to support small businesses, governments will be saving central pillars within our communities. These businesses help to make our communities feel like home by providing us with a sense of place and identity. Given the importance of small businesses to our economy and communities, governments must take steps to ensure these businesses are able to emerge successfully from this crisis.